Banditry in north-west Nigeria has a long-standing history, evolving significantly from its pre-colonial roots. A concerning trend has emerged since May 2024, where bandits have expanded their operations into urban and semi-urban areas, particularly around Nigeria’s capital, Abuja. On May 19, a raid in Dawaki resulted in the kidnapping of 20 individuals, marking the beginning of a series of abductions in urban settings. At least six additional incidents have since been reported in the outskirts of urban centers in Kaduna, Zamfara, Katsina, and Abuja. The latest involved a Bwari resident who was killed while his wife and children were abducted on August 29.
In January 2024, Nigeria’s Minister of Defence, Mohammed Abubakar, attributed this rise in urban kidnappings to bandits originating from Kaduna and Niger states. One notable incident involved the kidnapping of a father and his six daughters in Bwari, where one daughter was killed before the family was released after a ransom payment.
Historically, armed banditry has predominantly affected rural areas in north-west and north-central Nigeria, characterized by cattle rustling and extortion. However, this shift towards urban areas raises significant concerns about safety and stability in these regions. It also suggests a change in bandit income strategies as they seek new lucrative targets.
Exhaustion of Rural Kidnapping Targets
The intensification of banditry began around 2011, escalating from small-scale cattle theft to large-scale kidnapping and violence, driven by conflicts between farmers and herders and rising unemployment. As bandit operations expanded, they became increasingly violent, particularly in Zamfara State and its capital, Gusau. Over time, the depletion of cattle stocks and the migration of herders southward prompted bandits to focus more on kidnappings.
From 2019 to 2022, kidnappings surged in north-west Nigeria, with an estimated 662 related incidents. However, there was a noticeable decline in individual kidnappings in early 2023, which has continued into 2024. This decline is attributed to a lack of profitable targets, as affluent individuals have either left the region or become financially strained by repeated ransom demands.
While mass abductions increased in early 2024, these remained concentrated in rural areas. The decrease in profitability of individual kidnappings likely contributed to the recent rise in urban abductions.
Key Drivers of Urban and Semi-Urban Kidnappings
The recent surge in kidnappings around Abuja has instilled fear among residents. Police officers have noted a significant shift in public perception, with urban kidnapping becoming a major concern rather than a rural issue. Investigations revealed that some of the bandits arrested in Abuja originated from Zamfara and Kebbi, indicating that the same groups responsible for rural kidnappings are now operating in urban centers.
Several factors may be driving this urban shift. The diminishing number of wealthy rural targets, combined with intensified military operations since 2023 that have restricted bandits’ activities in the north-west, has forced these groups to seek new operational territories, including urban areas.
