Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director and CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.5% by 2026, reaching a gross domestic product (GDP) of approximately $400 billion. Speaking at the Access Bank Customer Forum in Lagos, Rewane also predicted that Nigeria would become the second-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa.
He forecasted improvements in Nigeria’s foreign exchange system, with unencumbered foreign reserves increasing to $20 billion, alongside a more efficient forex auction process. Rewane further projected inflation would drop to 22%, while the monetary policy rate (MPR) could be reduced to 20%, helping to lower the rate of bad loans in the banking sector.
However, he warned that the naira could weaken to N1,550 to the dollar in the parallel market due to factors like intervention funds and diaspora remittances.
Other key predictions include a rise in total factor productivity from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.6% by 2026, and an increase in Nigeria’s trade balance from $8.42 billion to $9.3 billion. Rewane also anticipated the price of petrol stabilizing at N900 per litre, bolstered by output from the Dangote refinery and modular refineries.
Additionally, he forecasted that the stock market capitalization would hit N58 trillion, with major companies like Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation going public. Prices of essential commodities such as rice, beans, and tomatoes are expected to rise significantly by 2026.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance highlighted a net inflow of $2.35 billion into Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which has helped stabilize the naira. Despite these optimistic projections, Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, expressed concerns, citing issues such as divestment, poor education, and unemployment. He called for data-driven decision-making to address these challenges.
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