Business
We need strong, resilient banks to achieve $1trn economy — CBN
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reaffirmed the need for strong, stable, and resilient banks to achieve President Bola Tinubu’s target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
Speaking at the 36th CBN Seminar for Finance Correspondents and Business Editors held in Abuja, Deputy Governor of Corporate Services, Ms. Emem Usoro, emphasised that ongoing efforts to recapitalise banks are a vital step in realising this goal. Represented by Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Mrs. Hakama Sidi-Ali, Usoro said bank recapitalisation will empower financial institutions to fund large-scale projects and compete globally.
“As we work towards building a one-trillion-dollar economy, we must consider the recapitalisation of our banks to finance and power the economy,” she said. “Banks must be strong enough to support development projects and effectively carry out financial intermediation.”
She added that Nigeria’s current GDP stands at around $250 billion, indicating a significant gap that would require strategic planning, consistent policy direction, and the full engagement of economic stakeholders.
The global financial architecture, she noted, has evolved, particularly since the Trump administration in the U.S., making it crucial for Nigerian banks to align with global opportunities and risks through responsive policies.
In his presentation, Director of Banking Supervision at the CBN, Dr. Olubukola Akinwumi, explained that the recapitalisation strategy now focuses on helping banks meet their Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) obligations and participate in infrastructure financing.
He said, “A well-capitalised bank can support large transactions and benefit from government initiatives such as infrastructure concessions. Stronger banks can lend more, especially to priority sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and SMEs, which are engines of growth.”
Akinwumi stressed that these sectors remain central to the government’s development plans, as reflected in the 2025 national budget, which prioritises education, health, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Adding an industry voice, UBA Managing Director, Mr. Oliver Alawuba, urged greater trust in Nigerian banks, suggesting that part of the country’s external reserves be managed locally to build confidence and boost economic growth.
“We manage the reserves of other African countries. Nigerian banks should be trusted with at least 10 to 20 percent of our own reserves,” he said.
However, Alawuba raised concerns about the feasibility of reaching the $1 trillion goal, citing Nigeria’s current annual growth rate of 3.8 percent—far below the 10 percent minimum required to meet the target by 2030.
He called for synergy between fiscal and monetary authorities to support the financial sector in driving sustainable economic transformation.
The price of Bonny Light, Nigeria’s premium crude oil grade, dropped by 5.09 percent to $59.62 per barrel on Wednesday, amid rising tensions from the ongoing global tariff war sparked by recent tariff hikes announced by the United States.
The downward trend in oil prices was further compounded by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies’ decision to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May 2025.
The price plunge comes as a major concern for Nigeria, whose N54.99 trillion 2025 national budget is predicated on a benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel and a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd). Current output, including condensates, stood at 1,671,953 bpd as of February 2025, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Speaking to Vanguard, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), described the situation as a “serious problem.” He warned that the decline could severely impact government revenue and weaken the exchange rate.
“This poses a risk to our revenue and foreign exchange earnings. We all know the implications of a weak exchange rate on the economy,” Yusuf said.
Despite the broader economic risks, lower crude prices may offer relief at the pump for Nigerian consumers. Findings by Vanguard indicate that domestic petrol prices may fall as downstream operators prepare for a likely reduction in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices.
Ehimen Joseph, Chairman of the Lagos State Chapter of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), told Energy Vanguard, “This should be expected in a deregulated market. If the fall in crude oil prices persists, it would affect pricing along the entire value chain.”
Another industry source, who requested anonymity, said: “Everything is pointing towards a pump price reduction this week. One of the refineries has stopped issuing petrol tickets, anticipating a price review before Tuesday.”
Depot prices have already begun to reflect the trend. Data from petroleumprice.ng shows declines across major players: Mainland dropped from N920 to N918 per litre, A.Y.M from N920 to N919, and Ever from N920 to N918. Prudent, Eterna, and Soroman also saw slight reductions, with Eterna dropping from N900 to N897 per litre.
Meanwhile, OPEC has reaffirmed its commitment to monitoring the global oil market. A recent virtual meeting of eight OPEC+ countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held on April 3, 2025, reviewed market conditions and reaffirmed output increases to stabilize global supply.
The situation continues to evolve, with both global market forces and domestic economic managers under pressure to adapt quickly to the unfolding realities.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reported a Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus of $6.83 billion for the 2024 financial year, a remarkable shift from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022.
This development, disclosed in a statement by the Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Sidi-Ali Hakama, highlights Nigeria’s improving economic fundamentals and the outcome of key macroeconomic reforms.
According to the CBN, the positive BOP performance was driven by stronger trade figures, resilient remittance inflows, and renewed investor confidence. “This improvement reflects the impact of wide-ranging macroeconomic reforms, stronger trade performance, and renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy,” the bank stated.
The current and capital account recorded a surplus of $17.22 billion in 2024. This was largely supported by a goods trade surplus of $13.17 billion. On the import side, petroleum imports declined by 23.2% to $14.06 billion, while non-oil imports dropped by 12.6% to $25.74 billion.
Exports also recorded significant gains, with gas exports rising by 48.3% to $8.66 billion, and non-oil exports increasing by 24.6% to $7.46 billion.
Personal remittances grew by 8.9% to $20.93 billion, and inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) surged by 43.5% to $4.73 billion, reflecting stronger engagement from the Nigerian diaspora. Official development assistance rose by 6.2% to $3.37 billion.
The CBN also reported a net acquisition of financial assets amounting to $12.12 billion in 2024. Portfolio investment inflows more than doubled, rising by 106.5% to $13.35 billion. Resident foreign currency holdings increased by $5.41 billion, indicating greater confidence in Nigeria’s domestic economy.
Although foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped by 42.3% to $1.08 billion, the overall financial account posted significant improvements.
In addition, the country’s external reserves grew by $6 billion, reaching $40.19 billion by the end of 2024, enhancing Nigeria’s external buffer and stability.
The CBN’s announcement underscores a broad-based recovery in the country’s external account and a positive outlook for sustained economic momentum in 2025.
The naira depreciated further in March 2025, dropping by 2.4% and 2.6% at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and the parallel market, respectively, amid persistent demand pressure.
According to Afrinvest’s latest Monthly Market Report, the naira closed the month at ₦1,536.82/$ at NAFEM and ₦1,530/$ at the parallel market, a clear indication of ongoing volatility in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.
AIICO Capital, in its own March macroeconomic update, confirmed the currency’s significant loss in value despite the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) injecting $668.8 million to stabilise the market. “Despite interventions, the naira weakened by 2.97% month-on-month, down from ₦1,492.49/$ to ₦1,536.82/$,” AIICO reported.
The report highlighted robust demand from foreign portfolio investors and local corporates, which outstripped available supply. The parallel market mirrored this trend, losing ₦43.50/$ to close at ₦1,536/$.
Although liquidity briefly improved mid-month with CBN support, the naira remained under pressure through the end of March. On a quarterly basis, the naira declined by 7 basis points at NAFEM, while external reserves dropped by $110 million to $38.31 billion.
Looking ahead, AIICO projected continued liquidity injections by the CBN, though global economic risks—including fresh U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump—could increase capital flight and market volatility.
Backing this, the CBN’s Financial Markets Department Director, Omolara Duke, confirmed that the apex bank intervened again between April 3 and 4 with a $197.71 million injection into the FX market to ensure stability. The dollars were sold at rates between ₦1,519 and ₦1,595.20/$.
Despite this, market pressure intensified by midweek as rising offshore demand and weaker oil prices—following an OPEC+ output hike—drove the naira to ₦1,570/$ before closing the week at ₦1,567.02/$. Foreign reserves declined further by $149 million to $38.15 billion.
Analysts at Afrinvest warned that the end of the naira-for-crude swap initiative could further worsen the FX crisis, as refineries and PMS importers rejoin the dollar-seeking queue. “We expect the naira to remain pressured near-term,” the report stated.
CardinalStone also noted that the FX market has been negatively impacted by capital flight and higher local dollar demand, recording a 1-month return of -8.6% and a year-to-date return of -5.8%.
Former Zenith Bank chief economist, Marcel Okeke, cautioned that the Trump-led global tariff war could spark a wave of imported inflation in Nigeria. “We’re likely to see an uptick in imported inflation, especially given our high import dependence,” Okeke said.
Tinubu approves release of N120bn for TVET agenda
2027: Northern group pledges 2m votes for Tinubu
