STOCK MARKET: Analysts call for caution over global trade war

Sell-offs in blue chip stocks such as Oando and First Holdco led to a 0.1% decline in the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) All Share Index (ASI) last week, as the market closed at 105,511.89 points on Friday, down from 105,426.12 points the previous week.

Market capitalization also slipped, shedding over N8 billion to settle at N66.147 trillion, compared to N66.155 trillion recorded a week earlier.

The bearish trend was largely driven by significant losses in Oando (-13.1%) and First Holdco (-7.6%), weakening investor sentiment across the board. Consequently, the Year-to-Date (YtD) return moderated to 2.5%, signaling a slowdown in market momentum.

Trading activity was further dampened by the holiday-shortened week, with total traded volume and value dropping sharply by 84.4% and 92.8% week-on-week (W/W), respectively.

Across sectors, performance was mostly negative. The Insurance Index led the losers with a -4.1% drop, followed by the Oil & Gas Index (-1.2%), Consumer Goods Index (-0.9%), and Industrial Goods Index (-0.2%). The Banking Index, however, bucked the trend with a slight gain of 0.2%.

Analysts attributed the cautious mood to both domestic and global factors. Cordros Research noted that the absence of strong positive catalysts could keep investor sentiment subdued this week. However, they highlighted that recent dividend announcements and upcoming earnings from banking giants like Access Corporation and First Holdco may trigger bargain hunting.

Experts at InvestData Consulting also pointed to the ongoing global trade tensions, sparked by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff hike, as a contributor to market volatility. They urged Nigeria’s economic managers to re-evaluate fiscal and monetary policies to cushion the impact and foster growth.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate a mixed market sentiment driven by earnings season, dividend declarations, and ongoing portfolio rebalancing. “We expect investors to continue targeting fundamentally strong stocks with high payout potential, while taking advantage of recent price corrections for value buying,” InvestData said.

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